Collection!Here is A year of the Tiger a-share investment calendar

2022-09-21 0 By

A share market also has “spring restlessness”, “five poor six unique seven turn over”.From the pure statistical law, A – share market does have an obvious seasonal effect.At different times of the year, the performance of A shares presents different characteristics.Let’s take A look at the year of the Tiger calendar in advance to see which sectors are most likely to rise in the coming months.Speaking of seasonal effects, we have to mention the “spring rush” at the end of each year.From the historical market, the first quarter “restless” mainly reflected in February.In the past 17 years, the monthly performance of the China Securities 800 All-income Index shows that both February and December have 12 years of rising years, with the highest rising rate of 71%. However, in terms of the median monthly rise, February leads the way with 3.29%, 1.26 percentage points higher than December.However, it should also be noted that March was the worst month in 17 years, with the lowest annual growth rate of 0.41% and the lowest annual median growth rate of -0.86%.There has been some adjustment in the A-share market at the beginning of 2022, but Founder Securities believes that this year’s turbulent spring market is still worth looking forward to.First, the liquidity environment is relatively comfortable and friendly;Second, the overall valuation of the market is not high, and the possibility of a general decline or systemic risk is low, which is more likely to be structural switch;Third, the industrial logic of the Jugra cycle of emerging industries is worth looking forward to, and we are optimistic about the performance of small cap growth companies in hard technology in 2022.Q2: Defensive sectors dominate the market by buying into expectations and selling into cash.When the market entered April, the catalytic factors of the restless market in spring gradually faded, and the market gradually entered a vacuum period of policy and performance.At this time, the early profit of the funds have cash floating surplus demand, and then retreat triggered market adjustment.According to haitong Securities statistics show that in April, May and June, the wind index rose 0.72%, 0.70% and -1.62 on average.Among them, June superimposed on the semi-annual assessment of financial institutions, market liquidity tightening, so the market during this period is often the most depressed.Such as the market after the June decline, July liquidity will be a retaliatory improvement, often also led to a rally.Defensive sectors with little correlation to the business cycle, or low valuations and better performance, such as consumer, pharmaceuticals and TMT, have outperformed during this period.Day wind securities research team found that the more in the market index probability of the lowest month, the more liquor became a capital group of the plate.The liquor sector showed remarkable strength throughout the second quarter, with a 70% probability of rising in Both April and June, and was the industry that beat the CSI 300 index 100% in June.Q3: Tech valuations switch q3, earnings are back in full swing.Hengtai Securities believes that July, August and September belong to the semi-annual performance and three quarterly forecast disclosure window period, performance will bring a certain impact on the performance of the industry.In addition, September is often apple and other electronic products launch, industry chain companies usually react in advance.Industries such as consumption, tourism and automobiles, which enter the traditional peak season in the third quarter, are also likely to show some performance.It should be noted that the day wind securities strategy team believes that the technology sector generally appeared in the third quarter of the valuation switch market, the performance of the third quarter is significantly better than the fourth quarter.According to statistics, technology growth sectors such as components, semiconductors, computers, optics, optoelectronics, communication and transmission equipment, and terminal equipment saw an increase probability of more than 60 percent in the third quarter, but fell below 45 percent in the fourth quarter.For the fourth quarter, it is easy to switch between high and low capital, which is usually dominated by low valuation and stable ROE.According to the calendar effect of the fourth quarter in previous years, industries with low valuations or stable ROE have a higher probability of obtaining excess returns. For example, insurance, white goods, construction machinery and other industries have a higher probability of rising in the fourth quarter.Hengtai Securities said that although the seasonal effect of A shares does exist and affects the performance of different sectors, but due to the macro environment and policy background is not the same every year, the seasonal effect in the market can not be precisely arrived every year.For investors, seasonal effects can serve as a calendar reference, but it is more important to know the company to which you are buying and whether it is cheap or expensive.Finally, I wish you investors the year of the Tiger to choose the right track, step on the right rhythm, make a lot of money!Source: Shanghai Securities News Managing Editor: Yang Qian _NF4425 Disclaimer: This article is reproduced for the purpose of conveying more information.If the source is wrong or violated your legitimate rights and interests, please contact the author with proof of ownership, we will promptly correct, delete, thank you.Email address: newmedia@xxcb.cn