Sea freight before the Spring Festival last fluctuation
The sea freight also ushered in the last fluctuation before the festival as the Spring Festival is approaching, the sea freight also ushered in the last fluctuation before the festival.According to the previous market rules, there will be a small shipping surge before the Spring Festival, because the shippers want to rush the freight before the Spring Festival, so they will push up the freight rate.But for the past two weeks, the most popular route between the United States and The West has been cutting prices.In the first ten days of January, the freight rate between The West and The United States continued to be above ten thousand, and the price from Shenzhen to the West once reported sixteen to eighteen thousand.In the second half of the year, however, things took a turn for the worse, falling to $7,976 per FEU.On January 21, Shanghai export container freight index 5053, showing a downward trend.When supply increased, the impact on freight rates was immediate, many merchants said, forcing many customers to delay shipments because of high prices.The urgency of pre-holiday shipments is nothing like catching up with the Christmas season.Last year, the first time the price exceeded 15,000 was in June and July, when customers shipped in advance to catch up with Christmas goods. No matter how high the freight rate was, they would have to bite their teeth and ship, or miss the whole sales season.But the shipment before the festival is different, most of it is to replenish inventory, the urgency is not strong, if the freight rate is too high, customers will delay the shipment, so as not to outweigh the losses.In this way, the relationship between supply and demand has quietly changed.Shipowners are bound to invest more capacity in anticipation of high freight and high cargo volume before the Spring Festival.In order to ensure that the ship during the holiday can also be full of goods, before the holiday shipowners will receive a large number of goods, as everyone has done in previous years.Tight supply and demand loosen when shipowners release too much capacity, and high prices cause shipowners to back off, so prices start to fall.Another practical reason is that although there is a certain amount of shipment before the Spring Festival, there is no way to compare with the shipment before Christmas. When the supply increases, the freight will be affected immediately.Sea freight also ushered in the last fluctuation before the holiday a few days ago, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and other shipping companies announced the latest suspension information, the next 4 weeks (4-7 weeks) in the world’s three major shipping alliances have cancelled a total of 55 voyages.Among them, THE alliance cancelled 30 flights THE most;2M alliance reached 14 voyages;The fewest sea Alliance cancellations 11.It can be seen that the sixth week is the week of Chinese New Year, and the seventh week is the second week of the New Year. Usually, the suspension is concentrated in these two weeks, and the third week of the New Year begins to decrease, and the fourth week basically returns to normal.Keep your eyes on the details of the shutdown.Industry professionals believe that global supply chain pressures have peaked.High freight rates, high demand, high congestion, coupled with the epidemic and labor shortage, the pressure on the supply chain is immeasurable, and no one can say when the congestion or pressure will ease.Like a crumbling building, he still stands, but every movement makes him sway and shake.Shipping experts believe supply chain pressures will not be eased any time soon, with a tipping point likely in the summer of 2022.Well, we’ll just have to wait and see.